Quintana Archives - Irish Peloton

May 30, 2017

Spread Out Giro Stage Winners

This year’s Giro d’Italia was probably the closest battle between the top riders that we had ever seen in a Grand Tour. Before the final time trial to Milan, any one of four riders could still conceivably have won it. As it transpired, Tom Dumoulin, Nairo Quintana, Vincenzo Nibali and Thibaut Pinot performed as expected in the time trial. This led to a Dumoulin victory by a margin of 31 seconds over Quintana and 40 seconds over Nibali – one of the closest ever Grand Tour podiums as shown in the table below:

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May 29, 2017

Grand Tour Trebles

Winning two Grand Tours in the same year has been achieved 17 times throughout cycling history. If we consider all of the years where this was actually possible, that’s an average of a Grand Tour double roughly every six years – a relatively common occurrence.

Despite Oleg’s Tinkov’s wishes, no rider has ever won all three Grand Tours in a single year. The best performance by a rider across all three in one year is a toss up between Raphael Geminiani in 1955 and Gastone Nencini in 1957. Geminiani finished the Vuelta, Giro and Tour in third, fourth and sixth overall respectively. Adding these finishing positions together gives a total of 13, which is the lowest total ever achieved. In 1957, Nencini managed ninth, first and sixth – a total of 16 which is not as good as Geminiani but since Nencini actually won the Giro, depending on your criteria, perhaps this should be considered a better set of results.

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May 28, 2017

Grand Tour Final Day Victories

A Grand Tour has never been closer. Five riders could still conceivably win this race. Any of the five could have a puncture, have a bad day or need a poo at a bad time – which could leave the door open for any of the others to take the overall victory.

The favourite remains Tom Dumoulin. He is the superior time trialist having put time into all of his rivals on the Stage 10 time trial to Montefalco. Every time trial is different – length, terrain, weather etc. But let’s take what we learned from Stage 10 and apply it to today’s test. The table below shows how many seconds per kilometre Dumoulin put into his rivals over 39.8km and how much time this would translate to over a shorter 29.3km stage.

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May 27, 2017

Closest Grand Tour Ever

Two stages to go of the 2017 Giro d’Italia and Nairo Quintana, Tom Dumoulin and Vincenzo Nibali are separated by just 43 seconds. But not only that, look down the general classification a bit further and there is also a mere 90 seconds separating Quintana and Domenico Pozzovivo back in sixth place, with Thibault Pinot and Ilnur Zakarin in between in fourth and fifth. This is remarkably close after over 85 hours of racing.

Is this the closest Grand Tour of all time?

Well, of the last 30 years, it certainly is. Any further back than that and data is hard to come by. You’re in the realm of trawling through newspaper archives for each edition of each race. And given the short window that this stat is in anyway relevant – if anyone else feels like doing that to themselves, go for it. You’ve got a few hours left before the G.C. in this Giro looks completely different.

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February 17, 2017

Froome’s Emergence from the Shadows

Chris Froome used to be bad at cycling. He joined the Barloworld team in 2008 and from then until the 2011 Vuelta he managed only one victory, in the Giro del Capo in South Africa.

‘Bad’ is all relative of course. He was good enough to be a professional cyclist and he was also good enough to be signed by Team Sky. But the story goes that before that 2011 Vuelta the team were done with him. They wouldn’t be renewing his contract because he wasn’t worth paying anymore.

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June 22, 2016

The Tour Preparation Puzzle

Nobody knows. You don’t know. I don’t know. Christian Prudhomme doesn’t know. Chris Froome doesn’t know. Even David Brailsford doesn’t know.

Nobody knows who is going to win the 2016 Tour de France.

My day job is in sports betting. Even if you have solid mathematical models taking all of the previous 102 editions of the Tour into account you’d still be nowhere near knowing who will win. If you had the results of every cycling race ever, the performance data from every training ride of every rider, analytics on tactical performances of every team and the biological passport data from every rider in the race, you still wouldn’t know.

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